Masters Updates: Schedule Change, Scenarios for Semifinals 3 & 4

The Jeopardy! Masters semifinals are halfway done. As always, the leaderboard, which lists the state of all tiebreakers, can be found at the show’s site. The long and the short of things is: Victoria, by winning both games this past Wednesday, has secured her place in the final. The other three players can do the same with a win in the remaining two games of this round.

A full breakdown of the possibilities and their implications (well, one implication in particular) follows in the second part of this newsletter. But first, the news from two days ago needs to be discussed.

We are altering the schedule; pray we don’t alter it any further

“Don’t miss it, when the Jeopardy! Masters semifinals conclude next Tuesday. Good night.”

That was Ken Jennings’s signoff at the end of Episode 7 three days ago. About twenty-four hours later, that sentence was overtaken by events. Jeopardy! put out that the penultimate episode’s airing was pushed back by twenty-three hours, so that Masters will conclude with a two-hour season finale the final two episodes airing back-to-back this coming Wednesday, at 8:00 and 9:00 PM Eastern.

I don’t know what precipitated this change, or which party (ABC or Sony) instigated it, but there’s been speculation out there. It’s not due to the NBA Finals, as some have posited; Masters still wraps up on June 4, and Game 1 of the Finals will be played the following evening. I saw a suggestion that the move was made to get Masters out of the way of America’s Got Talent on NBC. But as was pointed out in response, that doesn’t hold water, as Celebrity Wheel of Fortune is still airing a new episode next Tuesday. Speaking of Celebrity Wheel of Fortune — well, the effect on that show has been floated, and I think that might have some legs. Moving Masters Episode 8 to Wednesday at 8:00 PM displaces the season finale of CWoF, which now airs on Tuesday, June 10. As that episode is Pat Sajak’s last-ever hosting of any version of Wheel, ABC might have wanted to give that episode its own night, as opposed to having it as a lead-in to the Masters final.

I imagine that the official line might be something to the effect of “it was decided that these four games on a single night better builds the drama to the conclusion of the event.” Get that out of here like the late Dikembe Mutombo protecting the rim. Do you really expect me to believe that such a thing only dawned on ABC and/or Sony six days before the final, and after the first semifinal episode had aired? If that were the reason, the series would’ve been scheduled that way from the jump.

This also, for a single night, re-creates the problem we had for about two months earlier this year — overload¹. There’ll be five games of Jeopardy! on Wednesday. And in much of the Eastern Time Zone, some of the Pacific, and a few other markets – everywhere the syndicated program airs at 7:30 or 6:30 local time – those two and a half hours of Jeopardy! are consecutive. (Additionally, it re-introduces the “Phoenix overlap.”²)

One silver lining here: between me hitting “publish” and Wednesday, all seven of this Masters season’s already aired episodes will be rerun. The knockout round tonight, at 8, 9, and 10 Eastern; the quarterfinals on Monday, at the same times; and the first semifinal episode Tuesday at 9 ET, in the slot vacated by the second semifinal show. So if you’re not caught up on Masters, you have the opportunity to do so even if you don’t have the series recorded — and I highly recommend you do.

Where we stand entering Tuesday Wednesday

Semifinal 3 features Victoria, Isaac, and Juveria; semifinal 4, Yogesh, Isaac, and Juveria. Just as was the case entering last Tuesday, thirty-six possible outcomes. Though arranged differently than in my last post, the table of those is below; each combination of results is on its own row. Under “match points,” the lowest total (including ties) is denoted by black cells. For those results where there is a tie for fewest match points, the win totals for the players involved are highlighted in magenta. And finally, for each outcome, the player eliminated is shown; when the first tiebreaker of games won is insufficient to determine who that is, the cell is gray, and both players involved are listed.

Here are the number of elimination paths each player has:

• Isaac: 11

• Juveria: 11

• Yogesh: 8

• Fewer correct responses³, Yogesh or Isaac: 2

• Fewer correct responses, Yogesh or Juveria: 2

• Fewer correct responses, Juveria or Isaac: 2

As I said above, Yogesh, Juveria, and Isaac can all guarantee progression with a win. This is because if either or both of Juveria and Isaac win one game and come third in the other, while Yogesh finishes second in his, any such tie on three points breaks against Yogesh, as he would not have won a game.

Here’s where things get spicy

I’m going to isolate the top third of the table above. These are the twelve possible outcomes if Victoria wins SF3.

I said there are eight outcomes where Yogesh is eliminated. But as you can see from that picture above, none of those involve a win by Victoria. In fact, were Victoria to win, it would likely help Yogesh in the tiebreakers, as doing so would hold down the aggregate correct response totals and scores of Isaac and Juveria.

Something I mentioned last weekend remains true after Tuesday and Wednesday’s episodes — that Yogesh has beaten Victoria only once, and no other Master has placed above either of those two in any game thus far. And Victoria’s win in SF2 came via overturning Yogesh’s crush (by she getting Final and he missing it).

Yes, you’re reading things correctly — the best thing for Victoria in SF3 might be to lose, and indeed to come third, handing all four available match points to her two opponents to put them into better positions to both advance. What’s the right analogy to sports here? Is it…

The “Disgrace of Gijón”

In the 1982 FIFA World Cup, the final match of Group 2 was played between West Germany and Austria, a day after Algeria and Chile had completed group play. The two teams knew that if West Germany won by one or two goals, both teams would progress in the tournament at the expense of Algeria. West Germany scored early in the first half, and the teams played listless soccer for the remainder of the game. Algeria protested, to no avail. (This game is why at all major soccer tournaments and in many leagues, all the final matches kick off simultaneously.)

But I don’t think this fits entirely here. While Victoria can help out Victoria and Isaac, she can’t guarantee that they’ll both go through at Yogesh’s expense. So, I think the better comparison is…

Resting starters in Week 18

In the NFL, if a team can’t improve its position (that is, make the playoffs or get a better seed) in the final week of the regular season, it will often play its backups to avoid injuring the starters. This past season, the Chiefs did this with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. So too the Eagles with Saquon Barkley, which prevented him from attempting to break the single-season rushing yards record. Bills quarterback Josh Allen took the first offensive snap of the game to preserve his streak of consecutive games started, then took no further part.

Winning or placing second in SF3 does nothing for Victoria. (The only possible advantage is winning the semifinal stage outright gives her podium no. 1 in the final, and thus first selection in each game, but I think this is negligible.) On the other hand, sending Yogesh home at this stage would significantly boost her chances of repeating as Masters champion. And that’s what all nine Masters came to do — take home the Trebek Trophy. Though seemingly counterintuitive, Victoria would be entirely justified in approaching her last semifinal game this way.

Is this a matter for Sullivan Compliance?

Not from where I sit. Again, Victoria can only open the door for Isaac and Juveria; they would both have to walk through it. Yogesh still controls his own destiny; it’s win-and-in for him.

Two final points on this. For one thing, we don’t know the extent to which the players have gamed out the situation. In JPT, we’re at the lunch break between the first and second taping sessions on April 22. And for another, if Victoria did realize the situation she’s in and planned to take advantage of it, I can’t imagine her verbalizing that to either the other semifinalists or the show’s staff.

To reiterate, the schedule

Times listed are for Eastern and Pacific; subtract one hour in all other time zones.

• Knockout rounds, encore presentation: Saturday, May 31; 8:00, 9:00, 10:00 PM

• Quarterfinals, encore presentation: Monday, June 2; 8:00, 9:00, 10:00 PM

• Semifinals 1 & 2, encore presentation: Tuesday, June 3; 9:00 PM

• Semifinals 3 & 4: Wednesday, June 4; 8:00 PM

• Final (two-game total-point affair): Wednesday, June 4; 9:00 PM

For all my griping above about the late schedule change, I’m no less excited to see how Season 3 of Jeopardy! Masters plays out and who comes out on top!

1. From early January through late February, most Wednesdays had the syndicated Jeopardy!, the network Celebrity Jeopardy!, and the streaming Pop Culture Jeopardy!.

2. “Phoenix overlap” — in that media market, which covers most of Arizona, Masters semifinal game 4 will air on ABC station KNXV, while the evening’s syndicated game is on KTVK (independent) at the same time.

3. If that doesn’t break the tie, it goes to aggregate Coryat, and if necessary, aggregate pre-Final score.